First Call for Snowfall

UPDATE 2:45pm EST
NWS conference call ended about 30 minutes ago.
Sounds like a snow maker to me for the first event here while a hydrologic issue just south.
I saw a recent NAM snowfall projection for Louisville 8-12"!
I say give it a few more runs and check back tomorrow.
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First, let's make one thing clear...this is for entertainment value only. And believe me, there's gonna be plenty of laughs going around as weather forecasters try and tackle the timing and precipitation types for the next 36-60 hours. Expect a lot of changes to the forecast.

I do think we may have a slightly better handle on precip types and possible accumulations within 24 hours of expected changeover to frozen precip.

While this forecast only projects snowfall amounts, don't be fooled by the totals. Wet surfaces, sleet accumulations, mix of p-types will affect these totals.

As far as ice potential with THIS system, I'm not as concerned about it here in Louisville and Lexington. Could be some nuisance icing on mailboxes and cars while a coating of ice could accumulate on tree limbs. Roadways will be warmer than other surfaces for a while. However, after dark, your typical bridges and overpasses will begin to freeze over. It will be difficult to treat wet roadways as rain will wash most of it away. But, I'm hoping that the heaviest rain will be exiting our region by the time temperatures go below freezing. Still, watch out for a brief period of heavy snow during the evening hours Friday.

Louisville  0.5 - 1.0" (some higher amounts possible)
Lexington  0.5 - 1.3" (some higher amounts possible)
Covington 1-3"
Bloomington 2-4"
Salem 1-3"
Jackson KY dusting to 0.5"
London KY dusting to 0.5"

I stress that some amounts may be higher if less sleet and rain mix in with the snow.
Ice accumulations for Louisville and Lexington should be on the order of 0.2" or less.
Again, all of this is subject to change.
As I finish writing this post, Winter Storm Watches are being posted for our region.
I will have an adjusted Call sometime tomorrow.

Otherwise, in conclusion, I'm more concerned about the possible icing that will affect parts of our region later this weekend. If temperatures are cold enough at and just above the surface, prolonged icing may occur as the cold, dense air could have a hard time getting scoured out. Right now, I'm planning for the worst case scenario.

MS