Still awaiting updated run of Top 15 analog guidance.
Latest Analog shows isolated areas north of the Ohio River that could merit 'Moderate Risk' status. That means high winds and isolated tornadoes are possible.
If I could draw a bullseye for the region based on this data (from NAM), Madison IN and Carrollton KY would be it. Areas surrounding that would include Austin IN, LaGrange KY, Sparta KY.
NAM simulated radar shows low-topped storms plowing through the region late in the afternoon on Sunday.
Gusty winds should accompany this line, perhaps widespread 40-50 mph winds. At this time, I see only sporadic reports of severe wind gusts greater than 58 mph. Nevertheless, tree damage and power outages should be expected anywhere along the line.
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Greatest risk appears north of Louisville.
Expect data to change as this is just a preliminary outlook. Too many variables again have to come together for a widespread event. However, this system appears just as potent as the recent Halloween system.
MS
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