Winter Coming Early???

Here we go again. It's about time for all of the prognosticators or wannabes to throw their darts at the elusive winter weather bull's eye.

Last year, I believe my dart landed somewhere on the other side of the room.

What about this year? Surely, I'll do better than last year.

Already, a historic beginning to the winter 2012/2013 season. Superstorm Sandy produced all-time record snows for the month of October in locations like Beckley, Charleston, and Elkins WV.

The Weather Channel just named its first winter storm, Athena. The Nor'easter will impact several locations that Sandy affected just over a week ago. Philly expects 3-5" of snow. However, more coastal problems are expected and additional power outages could occur.

Locally, Louisville averages between 12-14" snow each season. One parameter that I did not factor into my equation for last year is what's called the Arctic Oscillation (AO).

I strongly believe that the month of October can have an effect on the future winter weather season of Dec-Feb. 

I found this interesting tidbit for you snow lovers.

Historically, here in Louisville, looking at the past five years, look what I've discovered...

AO positive for October, snow below average for Louisville
AO negative for October, snow above average for Louisville

The latest AO index for October: NEGATIVE
This should mean that Louisville will see more than 12-14" this winter.

And I'm just getting warmed up...uh, no pun intended.
More updates later this month.

MS