Yesterday's post dealt with the chances for measurable snow here in Louisville. I was not very impressed by the NAM and GFS 850mb forecast temperatures. Readings between 0 and -2 degrees Celsius may denote a mix at best but not good enough for a complete changeover.
Today, my thinking remains mostly in line with yesterday's thinking. However, the NAM has trended slightly cooler with 850mb readings between -1 and -3 degrees Celsius. Also, the freezing line (the 540 line) looks to be just along the river, perhaps just north as the main precipitation shield plans to exit the area here in Louisville.
If the precip can hang around long enough, as colder air filters into the region, rain could mix and change completely to snow later. However, accumulations continue to look negligible as surface temperatures will be too warm.
Look for mostly rain, with snow mixing in at times. I still don't forecast a complete changeover.]
MS
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