'Fun Poll' Results Are In....

**UPDATE** Snow totals
While these are not official reports, here is a partial state map from our friends at CoCoRaHS with their snow reports. These reports are from southern Kentucky where the highest snow accumulations took place.

 

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The amounts below are taken from the 'official' NWS offices for Bowling Green and Jackson Kentucky. All measurable precipitation had ended by midnight. Therefore, I am considering these as the final numbers for this event.

Bowling Green    3.8"

Jackson              2.0"

The combined total was 5.8"

Congratulations to the 6 of you who guessed the correct range for this difficult forecast (4.1 - 6.0)!

And thanks to all who participated in the fun poll. Hopefully, we can have another one because I know many of us are still waiting for that 'big one'.

Have a good day.

MS 

Midwest Snow Update...

**Quick Update** 4:10pm
Bowling Green  2"
Murray             5"

***UPDATE***  2:40pm
Still like my first call snow forecast...Looking at reporting stations in Missouri, a general 2-4" has been reported. Should expect this to translate eastward in southern Kentucky. Snowing pretty good there right now. Still expecting an inch or less in areas around Louisville and perhaps a little over an inch in Lexington.
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A good overall traffic map for the U.S. Just click on the state and get text or map descriptions for weather conditions.
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/trafficinfo/index.htm

Here are some more sites. It's snowing pretty good downstate.
http://511.ky.gov/kyhb/main.jsf
Scroll down near Bowling Green for example.

Here's the latest QPF output from the HPC for later today through tomorrow afternoon. We'll see how this outlook performs:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif
This one is not too bullish on 4"+ amounts around our region. We'll see.
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I'm trying to gather as much relative and reliable info possible for you guys as we track this storm's progress toward our region.

Here is an often overlooked site: (Your CoCoRaHS observers usually provide accurate reports)
http://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/ListDailyPrecipReports.aspx
I sampled this one out of Oklahoma. But, you can also access other states as well. I saw a report of 17" in Washington county as of this post.

Keep up with the latest snow projections from the RUC at this site:
http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=ruc7t&domain=full&run_time=09+Feb+2011+-+15Z
This is just a sample page I downloaded. You can access the projected snow accumulation map that is periodically updated throughout the day.

Of course, you can always access the NWS Home page and click on the state for the latest storm reports:
http://www.weather.gov/

Look at traffic cams for different regions and get road reports:
http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi
This site provides a text description of what's happening at different locations along Oklahoma's highways. Wow. Some reports as much as 14" snow.

http://www.oktraffic.org/map.php
Traffic cams out of Oklahoma City and other places. Just click on the camera from the map.

I will be adding other locations later today as the snow pushes east.

Also, don't forget. The 'fun poll' goes down at 6pm e.s.t. today. Click what you think will happen.

Till then, keep tracking.
MS

Quick update on others' comments from other blogs...

I enjoy reading other comments from various blogs. One caught my attention recently. The heavy snow falling while the temps are really low. Insane snow ratios??? One would think so.

However, take a look at the 850mb map again (I used this earlier in my last post).

This is the Tuesday evening temperature profile at the 850mb level. This is the level of the atmosphere that often determines whether we see snow, sleet, or rain. In this case, we want to determine snow ratio.
I want to reference you to Tulsa OK in the northeastern part of the state. Look at where the -8 degree C line runs. It runs right through Tulsa. They are only expecting a high temperature of 18 degrees today. Guess what -8 degrees C translates to on the Fahrenheit scale? 17.6 or 18 degrees. This shows how saturated the column of air is all the way to the surface. Still, snow ratios could easily reach 14 - 16:1 ratios, pretty high.

I believe there was a -2 reading in Kansas with heavy snow falling. I'm not sure what part of Kansas that was at, but this map shows temps at the 850 mb level in the range of -12 to -14 deg C range. That's about 7 degrees Fahrenheit, showing that it's warmer above the surface. Still, one can expect ratios to exceed 20:1 in these areas.

Keep those reports coming. I'm going to analyze the RUC models throughout the day and keep you posted on its accuracy as the storm system moves closer to our region.

Remember, the 'fun poll' closes later this afternoon. Click what you think will happen.
MS

The 'Big One' First Call For Snowfall

Ok. Maybe not that big...yet? I've collected enough data and made a few gut checks. Some may disagree with my methodology, but this has worked before in the past (just not very good these past couple of events).

The above map highlights an important number that will give us some idea concerning the all-important snow ratio. Look at the readings at the 850mb level for southern Kentucky. Temps at that level will be running in the -10 degree C range. This suggests to me that snow ratios will range between 16 and 20:1, pretty high. Will that translate at the surface? The cold column does support at the very least a 16:1 ratio with surface temps in the mid 20's. Therefore, I'm leaning toward a blend of those two, calling for an 18:1 ratio.

As far as liquid equivalent, the models seem to be putting out only 0.13-0.17" for the southern part of the state. Therefore, I'm not expecting more than 2-3" for the southern tier counties of Kentucky.

Since we'll be going into nowcast mode, look for the trend to shift a little more north. Any little deviation will raise snow accumulations, but probably not by much.

Here's my First Call:

Louisville         1"<
Lexington        1" or a little more
Bowling Green 2-4"
Jackson           1-3"

Plus, don't forget. You can also chime in and say what you think will happen by clicking on the amount you believe Bowling Green AND Jackson Kentucky, combined, will receive for this storm system. The 'Fun Poll' is just to the right of this page.

More updates later as needed. Otherwise, have a good evening.
MS

Fun Poll Coming Soon....

***UPDATE*** 11:00am  Special Blend First Call for Snowfall coming soon...fwiw...ha ha.

Just want to say thanks for participating in the 'big storm' poll. It was a close call between the ones who will get their biggest snow and the ones who will miss out on mostly everything. I can tell you guys took this seriously. With that said, let's see if you're up for another challenge.

At this time, there is enough evidence to support the notion that parts of the state will see an accumulating snow from this next system. Yes, there is also a chance that the system could be suppressed too far south so that nobody is affected.

Therefore, for a limited time, starting today (Tuesday, February 8) and ending sometime Wednesday afternoon (probably around 6pm February 9), the challenge will be to guess the combined snow accumulations for the Bowling Green and Jackson areas. I will be using their 'official' National Weather Service Office for determining the amounts.

Just click on the range you think the combined total will be for both of these locations. Remember, have fun with this. That's what this poll is all about.

Thanks
MS

Web cam links to Western Ky and SW Indiana

Centered at Evansville, you can zoom out and check some individual cam shots in the region
http://weather.weatherbug.com/weather-cams/find-cams.html?zcode=z6286&region=8&region_name=North%20America&country=US&country_name=USA&state_code=IN&state_name=Indiana&zip=47701&city_name=Evansville&stat=EVNCM

Also, you can click on the right hand side of this page under Kentucky Road Conditions.


Enjoy. Hope we get in on that.
MS

Packers Win and How This May Predict Our Weather

Intertesting title for this post. Yes, congratulations to the Green Bay Packers for their Super Bowl victory. The last time they won it all was on January 26, 1997. I did a little research on weather conditions that prevailed after that Super Bowl Sunday and found an interesting parallel.

An Arctic front was on the move. Temperatures were already crashing in the upper midwest with highs struggling to get out of the -10's. Within a couple of days, the front had swept through parts of the south and the Ohio Valley. Temps behind the front produced remarkable drops, some 30-50 degree spreads within a 24-hour period. For example, Fort Smith, AR had a high temperature of 66 degrees before the front smashed through. By the end of the day, the temp had dropped to a bone-chilling 14 degrees!

Yes, there was also some accumulating snows. But the biggest deal was the incredible cold that engulfed a large chunk of real estate as far south as the Gulf Coast.

Perhaps a parallel for this week. Could be. Temperatures are expected to plummet later this week. And yes, there could be some accumulating snow, especially along the east coast. Just something to think about.

Have a good one.
MS