Preliminary Thunder Forecast

As with our weather heroes, my own personal take on the forecast for Thunder could change, based on position of Low pressure on Saturday. Before that, look for possibly strong/severe storms with another heavy rain threat.

SPC says:

 ...and  the HPC says

Of course, we'll keep an eye on this, as river levels will continue to rise throughout the rest of the week and on into the Thunder weekend. Minor flooding is still forecast along the Ohio river. This may prompt some cancellation of water shows. In addition, any boating may be limited by the high water and driftwood dangers.

At the moment, my forecast for Thunder:
Rain before 8am then drizzle or light showers with low ceilings (that could affect air show). Temps near 60 very early then falling throughout the day. Windy. Temps at the fireworks show looks to be in the mid to upper 40's. Smoke from the fireworks looks to be on the KY side but brisk winds should quickly disperse that issue.

Come back and check for further updates on the heavy rain threat, severe weather threat, and hopefully an improving Thunder forecast.
MS

Flooding Update

I recorded over 3" at my location during this storm event, most of which fell late last evening through the overnight hours. The slow eastward progression was hampered further by an apparent deformation zone, where it seemed like the rain was not moving at all. We like deformation zones in winter but NOT spring. In addition, since I've received nearly 4" of rain during the past 7 days, my basement is again letting me know about it. At least this time I'm top of the problem because of great timing. I got in from work early this morning and the water was just starting to trickle in.

Speaking of problems and timing, could not be any worse timing for the Thunder weekend coming up. A flood warning is in effect for the Ohio River upper and lower gages of McAlpine. The crest is expected to occur sometime on Friday, with minor flooding occurring. However, guess where that minor flooding will be occurring? Yep, right along the waterfront!

In addition, more heavy rain possible along with a chance for severe storms coming up by Friday. I'm away from my normal computer, so can't update with any special tools at the moment.

Will try to post later...\
MS

'Miks Six' April 11 2011

In this segment called Miks Six, I'll feature some news headlines that perhaps you haven't heard yet or maybe you have. I try to locate unusual stories or segments on just about anything, though I try to find more weather stories than anything else. See what you think. I hope you like them...

1. During the past few weeks, extreme weather has led to record ozone depletion over the Arctic. The unprecedented loss had reached about 40 percent depletion by the end of March. This is an "extremely significant drop in total ozone content over a wide area."
2. Fox affiliate WXIX unveiled an interesting weapon in the Cincinnati area this week: a camara mounted 313 feet off the ground at the center of the King's Island amusement park.
3. Our neighbors just over the mountains at Virginia Tech are offering new degrees, among them and closest to being implemented is a meteorology degree, making it the first school in Virginia to offer such.
4. On April 6, a bright fireball streaked across the skies of Tennessee. First noticed by the Air Force base in Tullahoma, the meteor measured approximately 2ft in diameter and weighed about 200 lbs. Traveling at 9 miles per second, the hunt is on for any surviving fragments expected to be found near the Kentucky border.
5.  Lost Springs WY, population 1??? Well, in 2000 Census survey, there were actually 5. They must have forgot to look on the other side of the road, recalls the one resident, which included 4 other residents. According to the latest 2010 census, population now stands at 4. Since 2000, two residents had died and one newcomer moved in.
6. For you who enjoy reading about weather, here's a selection from assorted professionals in the field:

Meteorology Today by C. Donald Ahrens

Storm Warning by Nancy Mathis

F5 by Mark Levine

The Perfect Storm by Sebastian Junger

Northeast Snowstorms by Paul Kocin and Lee Uccellini

Any book by Tim Vasquez's Forecaster's Handbook Series


Have a good day. Keep checking back for another installment of Miks Six
MS



***Special*** Looking at Apr 9 2011 storm

Part one - April 9 video footage of storm clouds approaching my storm spotting location in Valley Station.

I'll be posting the actual storm in progress with heavy rain and hail along with intense lightning a little bit later today...in Part 2

***1:30 pm edt UPDATE***

And now for part 2...

Also, I'll be posting a NEW segment on the blog called Miks Six. I'll locate stories and/or weather bits that you may have or have not heard or read. I hope you find it interesting. Check it out. It's coming soon...

MS

The NUMBERS Game

Yes, this weekend, I'll be focusing on the 'numbers' from the SPC to help determine our severe weather opportunities.

11:30 am edt UPDATE
Power outage update
http://stormcenter.lge-ku.com/default.html
Just getting back from my storm spotter location here in Valley Station
I will say that we had marble size hail, lots of lightning, and torrential rain. Winds were not much of an issue, less than 40mph.
I hope to post video footage sometime today, 3 different installments of about 10 total minutes.

10:15 am edt UPDATE
t'storm WARNING for several counties just west of Louisville
Line appears to be intensifying especially areas approaching Breck and Meade counties. It is moving this way. I'll be stationing myself at my storm spotting location soon. And yes, I'll have camara and video ready just in case...

10:00 am edt UPDATE
T'storm WARNING for the Jasper area for that bowing segment depicted several minutes ago.
Look for these storms to move near or into the Louisville area between 11 and 11:30. Right now, if this thing holds, the bowing line, the apex, will be in Louisville or just north by 11 or so.

At this time (9:30 am edt), a line of strong/severe storms is currently moving across western IN and western KY. So far, only one report of severe weather, 1" hail in Knox county IN. I'm also noticing a slight weakening trend in the southern part of the line. That could be temporary. The SPC has much of KY in a Severe Thunderstorm WATCH until the early afternoon.

The 'numbers' are NOT showing me much in the way of support for severe weather. However, warm fronts can and often produce efficient amounts of heavy rain and especially hail during severe weather periods.

Dewpoints in Louisville and points north and east are not very favorable
LI's have been fairly stable for the last few hours. Closest negative LI's reside across western parts of KY
Helicity vals modestly high across the region thus some spin in the atmosphere capable of supporting hail and theoretically tornadoes.
CAPE and MLCAPE pretty tame

Overall, hail appears to be the main threat with this complex of storms. However, let's keep watch on the radar trends for further strengthening as this line rapidly moves east. Although the southern line appears to be weakening, the overall complex is generating its own 'energy' to support severe weather, especially north of the Ohio river. At this time, it appears the line is trying to bow west of Jasper IN.

MS

Keep On the Watch...

At 2:00pm edt, nothing really showing up on radar. However, don't let that fool you. The atmosphere is becoming destabilized. I'm impressed by the 'numbers' that are showing up for support of severe weather. Will this become a widespread event if it materializes? Hard to say at least for the moment. But the SPC is putting most of Kentucky on alert for a possible WATCH to be issued within the next couple of hours. By then, storms will be firing to our west and northwest.

Based on the 'numbers' that I'm looking at, all we need now is a trigger for storms to develop. All of the parameters are in place for strong/severe storms:
Here are a few parameters I'm looking at as of 2:00pm:
CAPE approaching 2000
MLCAPE between 1000-1500
LI near -5 in places
0-1km SR Helicity  200 in southern and central KY
30-50kt low level and mid-level winds

There is a short wave impulse that will be traversing just north of the Ohio river. At this time, it appears that storms could fire soon. If we don't get any storms here (Louisville) by 6:00-7:00 pm, that means the bulk of the energy will already be past Louisville and will likely affect areas of southern Ohio and east central and eastern KY. Look out for large hail and strong winds. Isolated tornadoes across the central and east central parts a possibility.

More updates later...
MS

Severe Weather Season - HIGH Gear

If you are a fan of severe weather, we have a treat for you...or should I say at least 3 treats.

The SPC has placed the region in a slight risk for 3 consecutive days. Perhaps, you prefer to listen to our weather heroes. You can also use the tools the pros use. And you can find them on the SPC Web site that I have posted in the Miks Piks section. In fact, during the peak 'tornado' season (Apr-Jun), I'll be posting links in this section of the blog.

However, be careful how you try to interpret the 'numbers'. One common mistake I keep making is that all of the severe weather parameters are in place, but no severe weather occurs. Why? Often, it's because the atmosphere several thousand feet high is too warm to support any upward development for clouds because the air parcels rising into this layer become cooler than the surrounding air; therefore, no thunderstorms. We call that a Cap.

That same cap can also act like a lid. Conditions at the surface continue to destabilize while the air above basically traps the 'boiling' contents.

However, when that cap erodes or breaks, then thunderstorms can explode in a hurry and a fury, as was indicated by this past historic severe weather outbreak.

With the upcoming storm system, I don't know if we'll be dealing with a cap or not because the Low will have plenty of cool air aloft to support hail stones, microbursts, heavy rainfall, and isolated tornadoes. I still think the main event will occur near the end of the severe weather period, the last of the 3-day period, as a cold front with an accompanying squall line produces damaging winds in its wake.

Well, another update is about due from the SPC...so I'm going to check it out. Be back soon.
MS