Rating Severe Chances for Today

So far this year, at least here in Louisville, severe weather has been kept at a minimum. The potential for severe weather was always there but subtle oddities like leftover convective debris inhibiting future initiation during the heating of the day or just the time of the day when strong/severe storms approach the area and weaken as loss of sunlight meant loss of instability or unusually strong cap inhibits storm development.

Here we go again. Severe weather chances are in the forecast. The potential is there. Now, what are the odds?

One cluster of storms pushed through the region early this morning. I'm following two other clusters to the northwest. These storms are leaving a trail of convective debris that might have an effect on our severe storm chances for today.

However, the language from the NWS here in Louisville indicates a good possibility of severe storms for the region, primarily damaging winds.

The analogs I follow are suggesting at least a 40 percent chance for severe storms today/this evening.

The SPC has put the region in a high-end slight risk category for damaging winds.

We've been in this position before. As in those cases, severe weather faded as they approached the area for the most part. No widespread severe weather at least.

What do I expect?

Dew point readings are high. MCV's have been consistently developing to the northwest. They like to travel along high dew point areas. Even if we don't get the MCV's, a front will be in the area. Heavy rains will become a problem. I think that we stand a good chance for widespread damaging winds near Louisville. Other areas include southern Indiana and western KY and southwest IN. Could be an active day.

Expect watches later this afternoon for a large chunk of real estate.

MS