Snow Accumulations Likely Tonight Mar 5-6 2013

Update: 4:40pm
Temperature down to 37. That's a 3 degree drop in 15 minutes. Large flakes have begun falling here in Valley Station.
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Update: 4:25pm
Front has pushed through Valley Station during the last few minutes. Gusty winds will increase along with a heavier rain band. Temps have dropped 6 degrees in the last hour from 46 to 40 here in Valley Station sw of Louisville. Snow is getting closer.
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Update: 2:55pm
Forgot to update the front. Temps are crashing out west, low to mid 30's. Winds are gusting 30-35 mph as close as Breckinridge and Grayson counties.
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In Nowcast mode, we can still access short-term models such as the HRRR or High Resolution Rapid Refresh for a look at possible accumulations. I'll be posting updates as to whether this storm may overachieve or fizzle out for the region.

Temperatures will be key. As long as surface temperatures are close to the freezing mark, main roads should be slushy to wet. However, I've seen main roads that I travel become snow covered quickly.

Banding of snow will be another key. Where heavier and persistent bands set up, expect robust accumulations.

In general, 2-4" is forecast for the region from Louisville to Lexington. I like that forecast. Some 5-6" amounts are possible in these areas.

The 1400z run of the HRRR at 15 hours out or midnight tonight has Louisville to Cincinnati in a 1-2" range by then. The snow is expected to continue at least till daybreak.

The 1600z run at 15 hours out or about 2:00am still has Louisville closer to 1" while 1-3" surrounds Louisville by then.

Updates later...

MS