Hopefully, these numbers will not materialize for everyone. While the map showed widespread amounts of 7-10", don't expect ALL of these locations to receive these amounts.
I think the potential for heavy rains exist along the track; however, I also believe that Isaac will continue to be deprived of some of its moisture feed. Yes, the air will be tropical-like and any rains will be quite heavy at times. Based on past tropical systems, however, the main area of concentrated rains will be right around the center of the system. Scattered downpours will exist away from the center that may provide copious amounts of rain during 'training' episodes.
In other words, I think the map may be a bit aggressive in rainfall totals. However, some locations could realize some of these totals.
Also, look for a eastward shift in the heavy rain shield. I think Kentucky's amounts of 1-3" look good. 4-5" looks possible from Evansville IN to just north of Louisville KY, though. I think 6" is possible, but should be rare in Kentucky and southern Indiana.
More fine-tuning of Isaac's track will help determine who is going to get the brunt of the rainfall. Stay tuned.
MS
No comments:
Post a Comment