Widespread Severe Weather Potential(UPDATE)

3:15pm UPDATE
Watch box is extension to first watch. The newer box goes all the way back into Missouri. Scattered cells are developing in a very warm and moist environment. Currently no warnings. However, these cells are rapidly developing. DCAPES are increasing. The newer watch holds out moderate risks for high winds and hail whereas the first watch has high risks for these. At this time, convective debris in the form of cirrus clouds and cumulus may try and inhibit rapid intensification of storms near Louisville initially. However, am expecting a line to form and push through the area between 7 and 9 pm edt. These could become severe.
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2:55pm UPDATE
In addition to Watches for Ohio and northern KY, a new Watch has just been posted that includes the Louisville area till 10pm edt. So far, no warnings with this new Watch yet. I'll post probabilities from the SPC watch box shortly....
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The most recent update from the SPC is as follows:

* Heating already in place
* Moisture readily available
* Boundaries from prior convection will aid in future development
* Winds aloft will enhance storm initiation and subsequent bowing segments

The main areas that could see widespread wind damage remain the same as previous forecast, from Cincinnati to the New England states. These areas are under a MODERATE risk for severe weather.

High-end slight risk still resides close to Louisville area and the northern quarter of Kentucky east of I-65.

Things to look out for:
)Severe Thunderstorm Watches will be forthcoming soon for several locations from northwest to southeast. Look for Watches to come out for the New England states and areas of Indiana and Ohio. Later, expect Watches for parts of Kentucky.

)Strength of winds aloft

)Where leftover boundaries interact, in order to determine possible storm development and progression

)Hard to imagine, but convective debris and miscellaneous precipitation could diminish severe potential. Right now, that looks like a small chance

)Winds in excess of 55 mph possible near Louisville while winds in excess of 70 mph near Cincinnati and northeastward.

I'm sure more updates will be forthcoming throughout the day.
Stay tuned....

MS