Snow In the Forecast

2:15pm update...
I'm curious how the NWS dayshift crew will handle the upcoming forecast package for tonight and into tomorrow morning, especially.

Both the NAM and GFS are advertising greatest concentration of precipitation by rush hour tomorrow morning. By then, most of the precipitation should be in the form of snow. The NAM, though, is hinting at very light precip or no precip at all until the A.M. rush hour. The GFS is still showing some light precipitation, perhaps a mix of rain/snow till changover to snow by rush hour.

While the '540' (freezing line) will be well established over much of the region overnight, 850mb sounding seems to indicate a rain/snow mix, if the precip can break through the dry air mass overnight.

However, by rush hour tomorrow morning, 850mb soundings should favor snow, especially from Louisville northward. But, air temperatures are expected to remain above freezing as well as surface and roadway temperatures. Therefore, any accumulation should be confined to grassy areas and should be limited at best as the UV radiation of the daytime eventually wins out and melts any leftover snow on those grassy surfaces.

Later in the forecast period, say from February 15-17, GFS is advertising an interesting wintry scenario, worth watching of course. As always, don't put too much stock into the time horizon as things will likely change as upper air data become more readily available.

MS