The other day I made a preliminary derby day forecast calling for some rain in the region with highs 68-73 degrees.
At this time, and again subject to change, I have not altered my forecast. There is yet not much evidence to support that Saturday will be entirely dry. I do think that we will be on the side of warm air advection. So, even with clouds, we'll probably still see highs in the 70's.
The timing for precipitation when the actual race occurs is still in question. At this time, I think rain chances will increase as we go through the rest of the afternoon and overnight. Therefore, some indications tell me that the actual derby race may be dry, but precip chances are increasing as we get closer to the event.
Right now, I agree with the NWS Louisville for a 40 percent rain chance. However, I feel that high temperatures will be in the low to mid 70's, or just a few degrees cooler than what they are calling for.
Preliminary forecast II - Partly to Mostly Cloudy with the rain chance mentioned above. Highs 71-74.
MS
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