Old Man Winter's Last Stand???

We'll see. I've been reading a bunch of hype about possible big snows for parts of our region (southern Indiana and Kentucky). I know anything is possible. In addition, I must admit that I'm a winter aficionado right there with the best of 'em.

But somebody better show me more than a bunch of hype! The same data that I've used all winter long, and that has produced fairly accurate forecasts given the complicated systems we've seen this winter, does not show me anything worth getting too excited about. Sure, we may see some snow, more rain/snow mix than anything, but I think the best we'll see is a brief, and I do mean brief, coating of snow here in Louisville. Even places to our north like Covington and Columbus IN may see up to an inch or two, but that should primarily be confined to grassy surfaces. Although I wouldn't be surprised by a WWA for those locations late Sat thru parts of early Sunday.

The HPC is forecasting up to a quarter of an inch of liquid equivalent precip for most of us. Some areas to our south could get closer to a half-inch, but that should be mostly rain. Of course, I'll be interested in the trend for this, as my basement still can't take on any extra heavy rainfall.

The model of choice for this upcoming wintry mix is the NAM. A lot of rain/snow mix for the Louisville area with more rain than snow. The farther north becomes more snow than rain with a better likelihood of a changeover to all snow before ending. However, temps will be marginable for supporting anything 'sticking' to the ground. Also, the ground is already 'warm' for anything to last very long. If the precip hangs around during the nighttime hours, though, some slushy areas and those elevated slick spots could temporarily develop for areas generally north of I-64. But, again, I don't believe it's anything worth getting too excited about.

Sorry snow lovers....Hopefully, additional data trends will help me adjust my thinking. But for now, that's my story and I'm 'stickin' to it.

MS