Analog Time - Super Snow Sunday?

Yes, the models are still coming to grips with a storm system approaching from the southwest coupled with another disturbance north of that one.

One thing I like to look at during a time like this are the top analogs for this type of storm system. I have been really successful at looking at these.

First, look at the top 5 analogs. Then, see which ones remain in the top 5 over a period of time.

Last, compare the model runs with the most consistent top 5 analog and take note of any differences.

Right now, I'm looking at the #2 ranked analog dating to February 25-27, 1993, an impressive winter storm that dumped several inches on the state of Kentucky. It is worth noting that both the GFS and NAM analog show this feature ranked #2.

During that storm, nearly 10" snow fell near Owensboro while 6-8" fell from Paducah to Louisville to Covington. 2-6" fell across the rest of the state.

Indiana was buried as well. From a line south of Terre Haute to Lawrenceburg, 7-11" fell. In Evansville, 11" fell, Bloomington had 8", and Indianapolis 6".

This storm system from 1993 just came into play with the last couple of runs. Therefore, it is important to see if future analog guidance continues to support this along with model guidance, which should begin sampling data tomorrow.

So, the potential is there for a decent snow storm. Let's see how it plays out over the next couple of days.

MS

Lowest Tornado Count Since 1988???

Since there is not much snow to talk about, let's talk about tornadoes.  The 2014 annual tornado count is near completion. According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 831 confirmed tornadoes have occurred in the United States with another 50 pending. This is well below the 20-year average of 1253.

Therefore, 2014 will likely go down as the least amount of tornadoes confirmed since 1988, a span of over 25 years.

Furthermore, the 47 tornado-related fatalities is the lowest number since 2009 when only 22 deaths were reported.

MS

Perfect Timing?

Looking at the title of my post, you may be thinking about the cold rain and sleet moving in this Thursday morning. It's even raining here at my house in Valley Station and the battery for my digital rain gauge is no longer transmitting data. Or perhaps the current Orion rocket launch delay due to wind violation just above the launch pad despite seemingly perfect visibilities and dry conditions at the site. Sam Champion from the Weather Channel morning show still cannot believe that computers have come this far that they can now override the countdown to launch.

Nevertheless, the 'perfect timing' issue I'm thinking of this morning is related to something that might occur within the next couple of weeks, maybe less. Here, let me explain.

Another super typhoon is trekking across the western Pacific, like toward the Philippines. Curvature toward Japan may result in yet another instance when a tropical system affecting Japan might make our weather here in the United States much colder than normal.

Combine this with a weak El Nino and seasonal rainy pattern in California, can you see it? Cold air invasion from the north and an active Pacific stream coming in across California is going to make for interesting weather down the road.

Stay tuned.

MS

Clipper Time

One of several clippers I am predicting for this upcoming winter season will embark upon the region later today into the overnight.

As with most clipper type systems, abundant moisture is generally not present. However, at times, these systems have and often overachieved on many occasions.

Since the NAM has had a decent handle of the east coast storm, which did not bring much to the eastern part of Kentucky, as it showed, I'm looking at a weakening consensus of snow totals for the region.

I've looked at the 0z and now the 12z runs of the NAM. Best moisture placement continues to look to be along the Parkways. This has been a consistent signal; however, QPF amounts seem to be declining.

Nevertheless, from Madisonville and Owensboro in the west to Campbellsville and Corbin toward the east look to receive some accumulations, anywhere from a dusting to as much as 3" in isolated areas.

Again, these systems are difficult to forecast. Sometimes, they overachieve. But, the look so far appears that much of those areas may see an inch or less.

It's still possible that some WWA's may be issued for some of those counties in the zone for the best moisture placement.

MS

It's Windy Out There

Over the past 2 hours, winds have peaked between 49 and 53 miles per hour at Louisville, resulting in tree damage and power outages, not only across Jefferson County, but now encompassing a large part of our region.

As I write this post at 8:30am, Jefferson County LGE customers have reported outages now affecting 661. Fayette County's KU/ODP customer outage is up to 163.

Rain is now moving in here at my location in Valley Station. Winds have gusted to near 50 mph with some small limbs littering my yard.

More updates soon on the 'big blow'.

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9:20am UPDATE
About 10 minutes ago, winds gusted to at least 50 mph here in Valley Station. At one point I will say it was between 50 and 55 mph for about 20 seconds, resulting in additional small limb damage in my yard.

Outages in Jefferson County have ramped up just within the past several minutes. Now up over 3,000 with half of those in the Strathmoor Village area.
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MS

After the Storm

I don't know. Overall, I thought the storm played out as expected. Yes, there was the heavy band of snow on the table and its exact placement remained in question until it finally happened. However, as I write this post, I am not aware of any 6" amounts except for an isolated area up towards Covington/Cincinnati.

I received 2.1" in Valley Station. Surrounding areas received 2-4". I expected 1-3" on average with higher amounts anticipated. Therefore, my final call for 1-4" was in line.

Earlier last week, I highlighted an analog from 1995 Dec 08/09. It was the number 1 ranked analog that showed a band of 2-4" accumulations along the Ohio River for that event followed by some incredibly cold air. Lows in the single digits and highs struggling to get out of the teens. I really did not think that would be possible with this storm system. But, that storm system actually lined up pretty well with this one and that was at 5 days out while models were waffling.

On this day in 1958, Louisville set an all-time high temperature of 84 degrees. That'll warm you up.

On the flip side, 50.4% of the U.S. has snow on the ground. Those lake-effect snow bands are unbelievable, even by standards of those that experience them often. Some areas could see up to 3 feet before the 'machine' shuts off.

I'm still going over the data from the rest of the state.

That's all for now.

MS

NOWCAST Sunday PM - Monday PM

Final Update 10:15am 11/17
Total snow in Valley Station  2.1"
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Check Updates below...3:15am Mon 11/17 at bottom of the page
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Winter Weather Advisories are out for a large part of Kentucky and Indiana, including Winter Storm Warnings for northern KY bordering Ohio.

I do expect an extension of the Winter Storm Warnings for areas along the Ohio River down to and including Jefferson County Indiana near Madison and Carroll County near Carrollton.

Short term models are beginning to hone in on possible locations of the heaviest snow amounts.

As I write this post, the NAM short term model is showing 6" amounts forecast for a narrow area along either side of the Ohio River from Madison IN to Covington KY.

Amounts drop off drastically to near 2" for Louisville. Now, this is just one short term model.

I'm still looking at the RAP model. It only goes out 18 hours during each hourly run. The 17z run goes out to about 7am tomorrow, showing a moderate band of snow progressing across the Louisville area. It looks like at least 4-5 hours of steady snow that looks like it could put down about 2" by 7am with minor amounts possible after that.

I'll be updating this page throughout the day, but right now, I would expect 1-3" for Louisville on average. Of course, there could be some higher amounts.

Here's the thing. The transition line is literally right along the River. How many times have we who live in Louisville seen that before?

Some areas just across the River from Louisville could be looking at 4 and 5" amounts.

Come back later as I will continue to monitor the NAM and RAP short term models...
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Updates posted here...

Okay, first update. That didn't take long. Remember that extension of the Winter Storm Warnings? Apparently while I was typing this up, a slew of Winter Storm Warnings just went into effect for areas along the Ohio River from Western KY through Madison and Carrollton like I wrote a few minutes ago and then on up to Cincinnati. Right now, Louisville is not in the Warning area.

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4:45pm UPDATE
Nothing new on my end. Still watching RAP model Snow from 3-8am in Louisville, still looks like 1-3" on average.
However, I do have a whiteboard malfunction. I've used this thing for the past couple of winters and served me well. Unfortunately, my little girl 'borrowed' it for her sand buckets and successfully grew weeds in the buckets and now I have caked-on mud and an inch of algae on the board. Cleaned it off some, but still residual algae may 'inflate' snow totals. Don't worry. I normally take several different measurements from adjacent areas in relation to my snowboard and then average them.
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9:25pm UPDATE
I may still post one more time this evening. Here's what I am looking at. The short term NAM keeps the bulk of 4-5" amounts north of the Ohio River. Also, the RAP shows snow ending in Louisville by noon tomorrow. I'm telling you Louisville has the potential to receive 3+"; however, sleet appears to mix in for a while thereby cutting down on snow totals. 1-3" still looks more likely here. But it's going to be really close. If Louisville gets less sleet, 2-4" looks like a good bet, still below warning criteria, unless the NWS Louisville decides to issue one for impact purposes since it will be during the rush hour that snow will still be accumulating.
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3:15am UPDATE
Even here in Valley Station, we have finally transitioned to all snow. Getting reports of 2" to my west in Palmyra IN.


Rapid Refresh Model seems to have a pretty good handle on this so far. Transition to all snow by 3am, including my location...wow.

Interesting note...slug of heaviest snowfall may occur just prior to ending here in Louisville or my part of southwest Jefferson county by 10am. Could be a stretch of 2-3 hours of moderate to heavy snow according to the 07z run of the RAP. Will be interesting to see if that trend can verify.
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5:00am UPDATE
Snow total in Valley Station at 1.3"

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8:00am UPDATE
Snow total in Valley Station at 1.9"
Seeing the back end of accumulating snows on radar. If this band holds together, minor accumulations are expected that should put me over the 2" mark

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8:55am UPDATE
A band of moderate snow racing towards Louisville. Unfortunately, it's moving so fast, I expect less than a half inch for most locations.

Regardless of what the total at Louisville Int'l, a new snowfall record for this date was set. Especially since the old record for this date was 0.1".

Here's your 'Hot Chocolate Moment' of the day...On this day in 1958, Louisville recorded its warmest November temperature of 84 degrees.

One more final post after this band pushes through....Nevertheless, snow showers may kick in later today into the evening and overnight. But those will be finer snow grains than the nice fluffy ones we have been seeing. So don't expect much accumulation.