As of October 22, a new leader has emerged in the region I cover for annual precipitation. Memphis TN replaces Paducah KY for now with an impressive total of 58.78". Paducah does come in at a close second with 58.74", coming closer to a top ten annual precipitation induction, possibly replacing 2018's top ten appearance.
The month of October has brought beneficial rains for many residents after a record dry September. Some areas in Kentucky have received over 5 inches this month, while others have recorded just over an inch. But, we should see an overall reduction in drought in the next report updated tomorrow morning.
The coldest air of the season is still on track to arrive by the end of the month or the first of next month. It is looking increasingly likely that the growing season will effectively end for most of the remaining region that has not already experienced a killing frost. Widespread 20's for low temperatures and possibly upper teens in the normally colder locations might threaten a few records. Lexington's daily low temperature records for October 31 and November 1 is 22 degrees. Right now, I'm predicting 25-28 degrees. Even Louisville could see its first freeze of the season, earliest freeze since October 29 and 30, 2017.
It's been a long time, but the NAO, the North Atlantic Oscillation, has been persistently negative over the last several months. If this trend continues into the winter months, look for more opportunities for an interesting winter season, especially if you're a fan of snow and cold weather. Of course, the other major alphabet teleconnections must play their parts as well (AO, PNA, EPO).
Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Thursday, October 10, 2019
MikJournal Moment 10/10/2019
How does the year 2019 drought compare to other years of drought?
There really is no comparison to such years as 1953 and 1963. However, the 19 locations in Kentucky that recorded new record dry streaks for an average of 27.2 days, does compare favorably with 1985, when the average record dry streak was a little over 29.3 days for Kentucky.
But, the time period was a little bit different. Drought was becoming a hot button issue for the months of May onward, when the planting of crops was in full swing. Much of the southeast U.S. was in the grips of prolonged dry weather, from Maryland down through the Carolinas. Virginia and Kentucky were also affected moderately.
In a way, I'm sure many would like to see 1985 as an analog for the upcoming winter. January 1986 was a decent snow maker for eastern Kentucky. One snowstorm brought up to 10" to the mountains in Letcher and Harlan counties, and wind chills were reportedly in the -45 degree range.
The following month would produce more significant snow, especially around Valentine's Day, when heavy snow blanketed much of Kentucky with 4-12".
Unfortunately, it warmed up soon afterward, so that rain and snow melt produced widespread flooding concerns, mudslides, and collapsed awnings.
I don't know about you, but this could be a decent winter if you like snow. Still, I think the eastern part of the state will fare the best.
There really is no comparison to such years as 1953 and 1963. However, the 19 locations in Kentucky that recorded new record dry streaks for an average of 27.2 days, does compare favorably with 1985, when the average record dry streak was a little over 29.3 days for Kentucky.
But, the time period was a little bit different. Drought was becoming a hot button issue for the months of May onward, when the planting of crops was in full swing. Much of the southeast U.S. was in the grips of prolonged dry weather, from Maryland down through the Carolinas. Virginia and Kentucky were also affected moderately.
In a way, I'm sure many would like to see 1985 as an analog for the upcoming winter. January 1986 was a decent snow maker for eastern Kentucky. One snowstorm brought up to 10" to the mountains in Letcher and Harlan counties, and wind chills were reportedly in the -45 degree range.
The following month would produce more significant snow, especially around Valentine's Day, when heavy snow blanketed much of Kentucky with 4-12".
Unfortunately, it warmed up soon afterward, so that rain and snow melt produced widespread flooding concerns, mudslides, and collapsed awnings.
I don't know about you, but this could be a decent winter if you like snow. Still, I think the eastern part of the state will fare the best.
Sunday, October 6, 2019
MikJournal Moment 10/06/2019
Lexington's historic 39-day dry streak, from August 28 through October 5, is likely coming to an end today. Records go back to 1872, but many annual records were incomplete. However, in 1908, from August 22 to September 27, no measurable precipitation was recorded. Therefore, it was generally accepted that this 37-day dry streak was the previous record.
The region's first widespread, soaking rainfall in well over a month, will benefit many residents in Kentucky. Hopefully, areas of central Kentucky will receive enough rainfall to alleviate worsening fire dangers to parts of the Daniel Boone National Forest.
Earlier this month, temperature records fell across the region. The first few days of October produced all-time record high temperatures for the month of October...
October 1-3
Louisville...97; 97; 96
Lexington...97; 96; 96
Bowling Green...97; 98; 97
We know how warm it has been? Here's another first for Lexington...
It's what is called the Heating Degree Day, based on an average temperature of 65 degrees. Any day's average temperature that falls below the 65-degree average is added daily and tallied at the end of the month or year. At no time during September did the average temperature fall below the 65-degree average, or 0 HDD. That has never happened in September at Lexington's climate reporting stations.
How dry has it been? Well, we remember how wet the past year and a half have been. But, since July 1, here is a look at the cumulative below-normal rainfall anomalies for select locations in central Kentucky (through October 5)...
Louisville...-7.11"
Lexington...-5.60"
Covington...-3.48"
The region's first widespread, soaking rainfall in well over a month, will benefit many residents in Kentucky. Hopefully, areas of central Kentucky will receive enough rainfall to alleviate worsening fire dangers to parts of the Daniel Boone National Forest.
Earlier this month, temperature records fell across the region. The first few days of October produced all-time record high temperatures for the month of October...
October 1-3
Louisville...97; 97; 96
Lexington...97; 96; 96
Bowling Green...97; 98; 97
We know how warm it has been? Here's another first for Lexington...
It's what is called the Heating Degree Day, based on an average temperature of 65 degrees. Any day's average temperature that falls below the 65-degree average is added daily and tallied at the end of the month or year. At no time during September did the average temperature fall below the 65-degree average, or 0 HDD. That has never happened in September at Lexington's climate reporting stations.
How dry has it been? Well, we remember how wet the past year and a half have been. But, since July 1, here is a look at the cumulative below-normal rainfall anomalies for select locations in central Kentucky (through October 5)...
Louisville...-7.11"
Lexington...-5.60"
Covington...-3.48"
Monday, September 30, 2019
MikJournal Monday 09/30/2019...Record Setting Month Coming to a Close
Good last Monday of a memorable month of September. You are witnessing something that may not be repeated for a very long time.
Several locations like Louisville and Lexington will record their hottest and driest September ever. In fact, it will be the driest month of any year for the respective climatological records.
But, October looks to start out the same way. Therefore, places like Louisville and possibly Lexington will likely set all-time record high temperatures for the month of October.
As you may have noticed, I have not posted a Welcome page for Autumn yet, because it's been too hot. But, temperatures are soon going to return to normal October standards by the end of this week.
At Lexington, annual precipitation stands at 36.51", just 2.03" above normal for the year. This same time last year, we were closing out a record-setting wet month that bolstered our annual precipitation to 53.75". Wow. What a difference a year makes, from record wettest September in 2018 to record driest month ever 2019.
So, with the cooler air slated to arrive later this month, one would expect a nice line of beneficial rain to impact the area. Well, not so fast my friend. Although some forecast centers like WPC are showing beneficial rainfall for parts of central Kentucky by next Sunday, current local forecasts show dry weather for the rest of the week, with a slight chance (<=20 %) by sometime next weekend, perhaps awaiting future data to determine if the rainfall will be meager or actually for real this time.
Therefore, for places like Lexington, their record 37 day dry streak looks to be in jeopardy. At 33 days currently, if it does not rain by this Friday, a new record will be established.
Annually, it's looking more and more difficult for Lexington to eek out an above normal year in the precipitation department. This could be the driest year since 2012, when Lexington finished nearly 2.5" below normal for the year.
I will post some MikJournal Moments this week, highlighting records and expanding on any hope for substantial rainfall for our region.
Thanks for checking in. Now, I'm checking out. Have a good week.
MS
Several locations like Louisville and Lexington will record their hottest and driest September ever. In fact, it will be the driest month of any year for the respective climatological records.
But, October looks to start out the same way. Therefore, places like Louisville and possibly Lexington will likely set all-time record high temperatures for the month of October.
As you may have noticed, I have not posted a Welcome page for Autumn yet, because it's been too hot. But, temperatures are soon going to return to normal October standards by the end of this week.
At Lexington, annual precipitation stands at 36.51", just 2.03" above normal for the year. This same time last year, we were closing out a record-setting wet month that bolstered our annual precipitation to 53.75". Wow. What a difference a year makes, from record wettest September in 2018 to record driest month ever 2019.
So, with the cooler air slated to arrive later this month, one would expect a nice line of beneficial rain to impact the area. Well, not so fast my friend. Although some forecast centers like WPC are showing beneficial rainfall for parts of central Kentucky by next Sunday, current local forecasts show dry weather for the rest of the week, with a slight chance (<=20 %) by sometime next weekend, perhaps awaiting future data to determine if the rainfall will be meager or actually for real this time.
Therefore, for places like Lexington, their record 37 day dry streak looks to be in jeopardy. At 33 days currently, if it does not rain by this Friday, a new record will be established.
Annually, it's looking more and more difficult for Lexington to eek out an above normal year in the precipitation department. This could be the driest year since 2012, when Lexington finished nearly 2.5" below normal for the year.
I will post some MikJournal Moments this week, highlighting records and expanding on any hope for substantial rainfall for our region.
Thanks for checking in. Now, I'm checking out. Have a good week.
MS
Thursday, September 19, 2019
MikJournal Moment 09/19/2019
According to the weekly Drought Monitor, 67 percent of Kentucky is abnormally dry. 26.26 percent is in at least a D1 drought. Burn bans have been issued in at least 50 counties in Kentucky.
Drought conditions forecast to persist through December 31 for portions of central and east Kentucky.
The July-September time frame could be the driest period since 1999 for Louisville. I'm projecting about an inch for the month of September, which would almost equal 5.00" for the period. The only other periods in Louisville's historical climate for July-September when precipitation amounts were under 5.00" were 1999, 1983, 1943, 1941, 1940, and 1930.
Dry streak records continue to fall this week...as of September 17
Corners...20 days
McDaniels...20
Salyersville Water Works...20
Taylorsville Lake...20
Drought conditions forecast to persist through December 31 for portions of central and east Kentucky.
The July-September time frame could be the driest period since 1999 for Louisville. I'm projecting about an inch for the month of September, which would almost equal 5.00" for the period. The only other periods in Louisville's historical climate for July-September when precipitation amounts were under 5.00" were 1999, 1983, 1943, 1941, 1940, and 1930.
Dry streak records continue to fall this week...as of September 17
Corners...20 days
McDaniels...20
Salyersville Water Works...20
Taylorsville Lake...20
Sunday, September 15, 2019
MikJournal Moment 09/15/2019
Dry Update:
19 consecutive days with no measurable rainfall at my house in Valley Station, KY.
19 days...Louisville International
18 days...Louisville Bowman Field
18 days...Lexington Bluegrass AP
Dry Streak Records Threatened:
Inez...17 days (19)
London...17 days (23)
Louisville Bowman Field...18 days (23)
Impressive Dry Streak and Temperatures
Louisville International 1953:
36 days of no measurable rain (not a record)
Temperature high/low examples:
09-29......99/52
10-19.....86/43
19 consecutive days with no measurable rainfall at my house in Valley Station, KY.
19 days...Louisville International
18 days...Louisville Bowman Field
18 days...Lexington Bluegrass AP
Dry Streak Records Threatened:
Inez...17 days (19)
London...17 days (23)
Louisville Bowman Field...18 days (23)
Impressive Dry Streak and Temperatures
Louisville International 1953:
36 days of no measurable rain (not a record)
Temperature high/low examples:
09-29......99/52
10-19.....86/43
Monday, September 2, 2019
MikJournal Monday 09/02/2019...Welcome to Meteorogical Autumn
Yes. Good Monday and the first day of meteorological Autumn. But, this does not mean Summer is going away completely. It's a nice day out there today, and it's a little warm.
However, we're looking at an awesome forecast for the week, especially later this week.
First, headline hog Hurricane Dorian has just been downgraded to a category 4 storm as I'm writing this, shortly after the noon hour. The thing is barely moving. Soon, a weakness between 2 ridges will allow the Big 'D' an opportunity to sneak through and begin its north and eventual northeastward swim, perhaps staying offshore but not far enough for any impacts to be lessened along a huge swath of the southeast coastline.
The forecast for high winds, relentless surf, and other flooding concerns has already prompted a mass evacuation plan from the coastlines of Florida to South Carolina. Even my favorite vacation spot at Myrtle Beach looks to be cancelled later this week, as the State Park is officially closed until further notice. Bummer!
I'm quite sure we'll hear complainers yacking about "why did they have to evacuate?" Oh, and my personal favorite, "People are just getting too soft these days."
I do not see any real good chances for rainfall in our region for the next several days. Although the majority of the state of Kentucky is still considered to be above average in the rainfall department for the year, I am projecting that the August numbers will show that the state was 'below average' for the first time this year. And this may even knock Kentucky down a level to 'Near Average' albeit the high end of that level for the calendar year 2019.
Well, I hate to cut the post short, but I do have to find some alternative vacation plans.
Talk later...
MS
However, we're looking at an awesome forecast for the week, especially later this week.
First, headline hog Hurricane Dorian has just been downgraded to a category 4 storm as I'm writing this, shortly after the noon hour. The thing is barely moving. Soon, a weakness between 2 ridges will allow the Big 'D' an opportunity to sneak through and begin its north and eventual northeastward swim, perhaps staying offshore but not far enough for any impacts to be lessened along a huge swath of the southeast coastline.
The forecast for high winds, relentless surf, and other flooding concerns has already prompted a mass evacuation plan from the coastlines of Florida to South Carolina. Even my favorite vacation spot at Myrtle Beach looks to be cancelled later this week, as the State Park is officially closed until further notice. Bummer!
I'm quite sure we'll hear complainers yacking about "why did they have to evacuate?" Oh, and my personal favorite, "People are just getting too soft these days."
I do not see any real good chances for rainfall in our region for the next several days. Although the majority of the state of Kentucky is still considered to be above average in the rainfall department for the year, I am projecting that the August numbers will show that the state was 'below average' for the first time this year. And this may even knock Kentucky down a level to 'Near Average' albeit the high end of that level for the calendar year 2019.
Well, I hate to cut the post short, but I do have to find some alternative vacation plans.
Talk later...
MS
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