Brief Weather News

Paducah, KY doubled its snowfall totals for the snow calendar year that runs from July 1 - June 30, from 0.2" to 0.4", after yesterday's whopping, shutdown amount. And you thought we, in central Kentucky have not had much snow.

Closing out February, Kentucky had recorded a total of 4 preliminary severe weather reports, even a confirmed tornado near Cadiz, in western Kentucky. Well, we've added to that over the last several days....

Total Reports = 186

Tornadoes = 10

Hail Reports = 11

Wind Reports = 165

Brutal weather atop Mount Washington, NH, home of the world's worst weather, as the claim goes. High temperature of -13 and low of -35 yesterday. If that wasn't bad enough, throw in an average wind speed of 78 mph and a gust of 115 mph! I bet there wasn't too many hikers there yesterday.

Good news for California....Their water year, which runs from October 1 through September 30, is off to a record start. The October - February period for statewide average precipitation came in at 27.81", the wettest first 5 months of the water year since at least 1900.

In addition, here is the March 7, 2017 drought report...



That's amazing when you compare that to last year's map on March 8, 2016...



Have a nice Sunday. March Madness is about to begin. Go Cats. Go Cards. Let's hope we don't have to play Northern Kentucky.

MS

Peak Wind Gusts for March 1, 2017

Site ID	County	Peak Gust
CRRL	Carroll	79 mph
PRYB	Graves	77 mph
PRNC	Caldwell	77 mph
VEST	Knott	68 mph
CROP	Shelby	68 mph
HRDB	Mercer	64 mph
HCKM	Fulton	63 mph
PGHL	Christian	61 mph
LGRN	Oldham	60 mph
ELST	Madison	60 mph
HUEY	Boone	60 mph
ZION	Todd	59 mph
SCTV	Allen	58 mph
MRRY	Calloway	57 mph
CCLA	Hardin	57 mph
WLBT	Morgan	56 mph
SWZR	Simpson	56 mph
CLSL	Nicholas	55 mph
PVRT	McLean	52 mph
HDYV	Hart	52 mph
CADZ	Trigg	51 mph
ERLN	Hopkins	51 mph
CHTR	Lewis	50 mph
DRFN	Marshall	49 mph
MRHD	Rowan	49 mph
LGNT	Lincoln	49 mph
WSHT	Mason	49 mph
RPTN	Crittenden	48 mph
DANV	Boyle	48 mph
OLIN	Jackson	47 mph
DORT	Pike	47 mph
RBSN	Harrison	46 mph
WDBY	Butler	46 mph
CCTY	Muhlenberg	46 mph
CMBA	Adair	46 mph
PRST	Bath	46 mph
WNCH	Clark	45 mph
LSML	Franklin	45 mph
BRND	Meade	44 mph
BNGL	Taylor	44 mph
HTFD	Ohio	44 mph
LUSA	Lawrence	44 mph
LRTO	Marion	43 mph
FARM	Warren	43 mph
FCHV	Shelby	43 mph
BNVL	Owsley	42 mph
HHTS	Campbell	42 mph
LXGN	Fayette	42 mph
HDGV	LaRue	41 mph
SWON	Owen	41 mph
FRNY	Union	39 mph
RSVL	Logan	39 mph
MROK	Barren	38 mph
MQDY	Breckinridge	38 mph
GRHM	Henderson	38 mph
GRDR	Cumberland	37 mph
PSPG	Warren	37 mph
BLRK	Grayson	36 mph
PCWN	Casey	36 mph
CRMT	Bullitt	36 mph
WTBG	Letcher	36 mph
RNDH	Metcalfe	35 mph
ALBN	Clinton	33 mph
FLRK	McCreary	32 mph
QKSD	Breathitt	31 mph
BTCK	Johnson	29 mph
BMBL	Knox	29 mph

http://www.kymesonet.org/event_wind.php

MS

Widespread Damage From Severe Storms

Perhaps the most prolific storm event(s) to affect the entire state since January 29-30, 2013.

I don't want to forget our friends in southern Indiana, either.

Widespread damage primarily associated with a grand finale squall line packing winds of 60-80 mph wreaked havoc for Louisville's morning commute and getting those kiddos safely to school.

Scores of local storm reports keep coming in statewide.

Already, Louisville NWS will be conducting several damage surveys today and tomorrow. I am sure Jackson NWS will be doing the same.

I am going out shortly and review the damage to my part of southwest Jefferson County.

MS

MikJournal Monday 02/27/2017...Winter Warmth and Severe Weather

This is Kentucky's most current preliminary reports of severe weather for 2017....

Total Reports = 4

Tornadoes = 1

Hail Reports = 1

Wind Reports = 2 It is still unchanged since earlier in the month. Yes, we did have quite a few severe thunderstorm warnings recently, but no severe weather or damage was received. That might change soon. Another threat for severe weather could happen as early as tomorrow morning. This one looks more promising. I say that because the warm front may trigger a round of severe weather with large hail being the main player initially. Then, a squall line is expected to develop and race ahead of the cold front. The Storm Prediction Center admits a great deal of uncertainty exists with how these moving parts will interact. But, the elements for severe storm development will be there. The one thing I noticed that may favor severe storms is that dewpoint readings will be higher this time around than last time. We had dewpoints in the low 50's, that with surface temperatures exceeding 80 degrees at Louisville on Friday. However, dewpoint temperatures are expected to be in the upper 50's at the very least for this go around, mainly along the cold front. But, the warm front itself may generate hail exceeding severe criteria (which is at least 1.00" in diameter or otherwise). I would describe it in terms of coins, but, the actual diameter of a quarter is less than 1.00", which should not be used in my opinion. I therefore agree with the SPC's assessment with this quote: "We encourage measurement, not estimation, of hail size." So, for right now, let's see how these moving parts unfold. But, be aware, large hail along the warm front and damaging wind along a squall line later are the primary modes of severe weather potential. Keep weather radios on standby, and have quick access to your favorite media source for the most current updates. Also, the statewide tornado drill will now be on Friday, March 3 at 10:07 a.m. est. With so much winter warmth, no wonder severe weather is off and running. I did some projections and discovered that Lexington should record their 2nd warmest winter season ever. Bowling Green should also record its 2nd warmest winter ever. Louisville should record its 7th warmest winter ever. By the middle of next month, I will be switching to the Spring page, yes, getting away from the winter (or should I say the lack of winter) page. Severe storm stats will likely dominate the page. Every now and then, I would like to post an occasional standout storm from the history books. I will post more information on here if any significant updates come my way. MS

In Memory of Bill Paxton...

One of my favorite movies from several years ago...and, well, still is.

 

 

Thanks for the memories.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4eSrpb4SDU

 

MS

Busy Weather Day Today

It looks like a severe weather event will impact our region later today. Most, if not all, of the ingredients will be present for a damaging wind event this afternoon and evening. The only question I have is "how strong will the 'cap' be?" A secondary one could be "how long after sunset will it take for the intensity of an expected squall line to wane?"

Analogs and models, the SPC, everyone seems to be on board. This was highlighted earlier this week. There has been little change in the overall setup of this thing.

I have looked at past analogs and have found a damaging wind threat exists all along the line. So, once (IF) the cap breaks before sundown, discrete cells will go up quickly, congealing into a linear/squall shortly afterwards.

My confidence meter for this event is fairly high. I looked at the morning clouds, the smell of Spring in the air, the winds, falling pressure (right now at 1005mb/29.70"Hg).

Winds are going to be very gusty pre-frontal passage, likely exceeding 40 mph at times.

A classic setup for severe weather today. It's still difficult for me to determine who will see the brunt of the bad weather. However, a 100-mile wide area could be impacted by the squall line that might produce the most damage.

Again, we'll have to wait and see when the cap begins to erode. This could affect the evolution and strength of the impending event. But, the threat is unusually high for our region to be impacted.

Weather radios on standby. Your favorite media source, whether online or television, ready to go.

MS

MikJournal Monday 02/20/2017...More Broken Records

It's beginning to sound like a broken record, but daily record high temperatures, top ten warmest February's on record, and top ten warmest meteorological winters (Dec-Feb) on record are imminent.

I am not just referring to our region, but some climatic centers will likely record well-above normal winter temperatures. In fact, I wonder if this could be the warmest winter on record for the nation. Well, I don't know that, but I may make that a future project.

How about all of that rain in California? It sure looks like the big time drought is over. And all of that snow in the higher elevations? I saw reports of a location that has now recorded over 460" snow. In fact, some within that same mountainous area are expecting between 2 and 5 feet of additional accumulation this week.

I'll try to post numbers for our unusually warm February, that following a very mild January.

Could this lead to some severe weather later this week? There are signals. But, all parameters still need to align for such an event in our region.

Now, I have to cut this post short. My little daughter probably has the flu, and I am her chauffeur to the doctor's office.

MS