There's nothing like crisp, fall weather and football. Well, you might want to put those chili ingredients on your grocery list because by next Saturday, we could be looking at high temperatures struggling to reach 60 degrees for some areas along and north of I-64.
If the ECMWF's forecast model holds true to form, overnight low temperatures could very well dip into the upper 30's and low 40's for many locations by next Sunday morning if we have a clear sky and calm wind.
Before that happens, look for seasonal temperatures in the 80's through at least midweek before cooling to the 70's before week's end and then ranging from 60-65 for next Saturday's high temperatures.
I'll be posting further updates regularly about this fall-like shift for the next few days.
MS
Saturday, September 6, 2014
Friday, September 5, 2014
Coldest Air of the Season On the Horizon
UPDATE 09/06/14
Updated dates below to reflect model runs of the Euro Model. 7-10 days out does not go beyond the 16th. I had posted dates beyond that for some reason.
-------------------------------
Here we go again...talk of another Polar Vortex coming soon to the United States? I hope the media and some meteorological sources do not hype this thing up again like previous instances.
However, admittedly, when I looked at a recent run of the ECMWF, which is the model of choice for me at 7-10 days out, the depiction of a deep trough spinning above the Hudson Bay with spokes of cold air funneling toward the U.S. border tells me that the growing season may be coming to an end soon for some residents of Minnesota and the U.P. of Michigan.
Now, I am not talking this weekend but maybe next weekend. But, a consistent signal is showing up that by the September 13-15 time frame, a nice blast of very cool air may be invading initially the northern portions of the upper Midwest then surging southward toward our region of Kentucky.
The 00z run for Sunday evening of September 14 shows some serious cold near the Hudson Bay. The question is how much modification of that cold air will take place as it surges southward toward the northern U.S.?
Looking down the road, I would not be surprised to see overnight low readings here in Louisville drop to the mid 40's with upper 30's to low 40's in the outlying areas by the 14th. And that may be conservative. Depending on cloud cover, some areas may struggle with getting out of the 50's for highs!
This is just a preliminary look at what could happen. There's a lot of uncertainty concerning the details but does show our first blast of autumn air poised to infiltrate the region within the next two weeks.
Stay tuned...
MS
Updated dates below to reflect model runs of the Euro Model. 7-10 days out does not go beyond the 16th. I had posted dates beyond that for some reason.
-------------------------------
Here we go again...talk of another Polar Vortex coming soon to the United States? I hope the media and some meteorological sources do not hype this thing up again like previous instances.
However, admittedly, when I looked at a recent run of the ECMWF, which is the model of choice for me at 7-10 days out, the depiction of a deep trough spinning above the Hudson Bay with spokes of cold air funneling toward the U.S. border tells me that the growing season may be coming to an end soon for some residents of Minnesota and the U.P. of Michigan.
Now, I am not talking this weekend but maybe next weekend. But, a consistent signal is showing up that by the September 13-15 time frame, a nice blast of very cool air may be invading initially the northern portions of the upper Midwest then surging southward toward our region of Kentucky.
The 00z run for Sunday evening of September 14 shows some serious cold near the Hudson Bay. The question is how much modification of that cold air will take place as it surges southward toward the northern U.S.?
Looking down the road, I would not be surprised to see overnight low readings here in Louisville drop to the mid 40's with upper 30's to low 40's in the outlying areas by the 14th. And that may be conservative. Depending on cloud cover, some areas may struggle with getting out of the 50's for highs!
This is just a preliminary look at what could happen. There's a lot of uncertainty concerning the details but does show our first blast of autumn air poised to infiltrate the region within the next two weeks.
Stay tuned...
MS
Saturday, August 30, 2014
Bowling Green Sets Mark
Within the past hour, Bowling Green at the Warren County Regional airport has set an all-time wettest record for the month of August. In fact 0.77" fell during the past hour; therefore, Bowling Green's rainfall total has now surpassed the 10" mark, easily eclipsing the 9.34" set in 1926.
As I write this post, a slug of moisture with moderate to heavy rainfall is moving toward the Lexington area. I think Lexington will close in on the 10" mark tonight. The all-time wettest August record, though, stands at 11.18". Therefore, 2" is needed to break the all-time mark.
Updates later tonight or first thing tomorrow morning.
MS
As I write this post, a slug of moisture with moderate to heavy rainfall is moving toward the Lexington area. I think Lexington will close in on the 10" mark tonight. The all-time wettest August record, though, stands at 11.18". Therefore, 2" is needed to break the all-time mark.
Updates later tonight or first thing tomorrow morning.
MS
Friday, August 29, 2014
Who Will Take the Official Wettest Reporting Station This Month?
08/30/14 UPDATE
Oops...
Below, I made reference to Lexington setting 'their greatest 24-hour rain total ever'. Well, I was alluding to the 5.38" that fell during August 9-10. But, that 24-hour total is not the greatest amount recorded, rather it was the 4th wettest day on record for Lexington. -- MS
------------------------------
It has been a very wet August for much of Kentucky. Since reporting their greatest 24-hour rain total ever, I have been advertising Lexington's total August rainfall anticipating a wettest August on record event.
However, Bowling Green has sneaked into the record books, well, almost. Their 9.26" heading into a potentially stormy weekend has them on the cusp of an all-time wettest August on record. They only need to record 0.09" to set the mark.
In addition, Bowling Green's official reporting station, Warren County Regional Airport, has surpassed Lexington's Bluegrass Airport by about 0.10".
Louisville has cracked the top ten list at #8 with 6.32" heading into the weekend.
Unofficially, according to Kentucky Mesonet site...
Greenville 9.04"
Hardinsburg 8.63"
Paintsville 8.58"
Hindman 8.57"
Burkesville 7.92"
West Liberty 7.51"
Munfordville 6.53"
Edmonton 6.51"
Booneville 6.37"
McKee 6.33"
Pikeville 6.20"
MS
Oops...
Below, I made reference to Lexington setting 'their greatest 24-hour rain total ever'. Well, I was alluding to the 5.38" that fell during August 9-10. But, that 24-hour total is not the greatest amount recorded, rather it was the 4th wettest day on record for Lexington. -- MS
------------------------------
It has been a very wet August for much of Kentucky. Since reporting their greatest 24-hour rain total ever, I have been advertising Lexington's total August rainfall anticipating a wettest August on record event.
However, Bowling Green has sneaked into the record books, well, almost. Their 9.26" heading into a potentially stormy weekend has them on the cusp of an all-time wettest August on record. They only need to record 0.09" to set the mark.
In addition, Bowling Green's official reporting station, Warren County Regional Airport, has surpassed Lexington's Bluegrass Airport by about 0.10".
Louisville has cracked the top ten list at #8 with 6.32" heading into the weekend.
Unofficially, according to Kentucky Mesonet site...
Greenville 9.04"
Hardinsburg 8.63"
Paintsville 8.58"
Hindman 8.57"
Burkesville 7.92"
West Liberty 7.51"
Munfordville 6.53"
Edmonton 6.51"
Booneville 6.37"
McKee 6.33"
Pikeville 6.20"
MS
Saturday, August 23, 2014
All Aboard!
The Train is entering the station, Valley Station that is, and the Louisville Metro area in general. A long line of storms stretches north and northwest all the way to Illinois. Movement of these storms is generally southeast.
More than likely, the atmosphere should get worked over enough that storms will either fade away soon or combine with additional unused boundaries and wreak havoc along that path.
These storms are once again putting out lots of lightning and heavy rain. If training does develop, flooding concerns will become an issue.
MS
More than likely, the atmosphere should get worked over enough that storms will either fade away soon or combine with additional unused boundaries and wreak havoc along that path.
These storms are once again putting out lots of lightning and heavy rain. If training does develop, flooding concerns will become an issue.
MS
Friday, August 22, 2014
Storms Still Possible, Heat Likely
06:45pm
Lexington getting pounded with heavy rain and lots of lightning. Fayette county outages increasing. Oldham county just north of Prospect with intense storm knocking out power to 3,200 customers.
----------------------
06:09pm
Franklin county power outage up to 371...Fayette county next.
Storm appeared to be bowing out, but could also be a sign of weakening, hopefully. This thing was a monster.
--------------------
05:45pm
Power outages are now increasing in parts of Franklin and Owen counties. Could be from wind but most likely the lightning. See LGE/KU power outage map in the Miks Piks section of the blog.
------------------------------
05:35pm
The small cell is producing lightning strokes of nearly 30 per minute nearing Frankfort and Georgetown. It is slowly moving and is producing flooding rains.
-------------------------------
04:55pm
Speaking of Frankfort, strong storm just north...lightning strikes really ramping up now. Wouldn't be surprised by power outages due from lightning strikes. This storm is really putting out the lightning.
----------------------
03:45pm
Lightning tracker shows lightning count within 180 miles of Frankfort ticking down for the moment. As of this writing, the 3:30 lightning strokes per minute stood at 30.9. Overnight, it peaked around 200 strokes per minute. The nice thing about this feature is one can adjust the distance from, in this case it's Frankfort, within a few miles. Most of the current lightning strikes is occurring in West Virginia.
http://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/america/index.php?bo_page=statistics&bo_station_id=33&bo_region=dist300&lang=en
Within 120 miles of Frankfort...
http://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/america/index.php?bo_page=statistics&bo_station_id=33&bo_region=dist200&lang=en
Watch the lightning count ramp up this evening....
--------------------------------------------
03:20pm UPDATE
Dry conditions continue to exist. Mesoscale analysis shows rampant instability across the region. The only thing keeping a lid on things is the weak cap that should break down later this afternoon. Looking at vis sat, partial clearing may help focus potential development of storms along a line from Cincinnati to Terre Haute and drop southeast. Storms may form a broken line, so not everyone will get wet. Gusty winds and very heavy rainfall can be expected with the more rambunctious cells.
-----------------------------------
PWat or Precipitable Water values are running at 1.8 to 1.9 across north-central Kentucky and southern Indiana at 11:00am this morning.
Dewpoint readings are in the upper 60's and low to mid 70's.
Weak capping is in place across parts of the region. Convection is dying off to the north and northwest of the area. Cloud debris though has streamed into the area limiting instability at this time.
Therefore, I'm expecting dry conditions for several hours today. But convection is sure to fire up and break through the weak cap and produce heavy rainfall for many of us today. Even gusty winds along with dangerous lightning (uh oh Friday Night Football attenders) are possible. Actual pinpointing of that is difficult to do. However, I would place it at greater than the 20 percent coverage area by the NWS.
Heat is building into the area. NWS is expecting heat indices to approach and exceed 100 degrees at times this weekend.
I'll follow the action this afternoon but expect convection to really get going after 3pm.
MS
Lexington getting pounded with heavy rain and lots of lightning. Fayette county outages increasing. Oldham county just north of Prospect with intense storm knocking out power to 3,200 customers.
----------------------
06:09pm
Franklin county power outage up to 371...Fayette county next.
Storm appeared to be bowing out, but could also be a sign of weakening, hopefully. This thing was a monster.
--------------------
05:45pm
Power outages are now increasing in parts of Franklin and Owen counties. Could be from wind but most likely the lightning. See LGE/KU power outage map in the Miks Piks section of the blog.
------------------------------
05:35pm
The small cell is producing lightning strokes of nearly 30 per minute nearing Frankfort and Georgetown. It is slowly moving and is producing flooding rains.
-------------------------------
04:55pm
Speaking of Frankfort, strong storm just north...lightning strikes really ramping up now. Wouldn't be surprised by power outages due from lightning strikes. This storm is really putting out the lightning.
----------------------
03:45pm
Lightning tracker shows lightning count within 180 miles of Frankfort ticking down for the moment. As of this writing, the 3:30 lightning strokes per minute stood at 30.9. Overnight, it peaked around 200 strokes per minute. The nice thing about this feature is one can adjust the distance from, in this case it's Frankfort, within a few miles. Most of the current lightning strikes is occurring in West Virginia.
http://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/america/index.php?bo_page=statistics&bo_station_id=33&bo_region=dist300&lang=en
Within 120 miles of Frankfort...
http://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/america/index.php?bo_page=statistics&bo_station_id=33&bo_region=dist200&lang=en
Watch the lightning count ramp up this evening....
--------------------------------------------
03:20pm UPDATE
Dry conditions continue to exist. Mesoscale analysis shows rampant instability across the region. The only thing keeping a lid on things is the weak cap that should break down later this afternoon. Looking at vis sat, partial clearing may help focus potential development of storms along a line from Cincinnati to Terre Haute and drop southeast. Storms may form a broken line, so not everyone will get wet. Gusty winds and very heavy rainfall can be expected with the more rambunctious cells.
-----------------------------------
PWat or Precipitable Water values are running at 1.8 to 1.9 across north-central Kentucky and southern Indiana at 11:00am this morning.
Dewpoint readings are in the upper 60's and low to mid 70's.
Weak capping is in place across parts of the region. Convection is dying off to the north and northwest of the area. Cloud debris though has streamed into the area limiting instability at this time.
Therefore, I'm expecting dry conditions for several hours today. But convection is sure to fire up and break through the weak cap and produce heavy rainfall for many of us today. Even gusty winds along with dangerous lightning (uh oh Friday Night Football attenders) are possible. Actual pinpointing of that is difficult to do. However, I would place it at greater than the 20 percent coverage area by the NWS.
Heat is building into the area. NWS is expecting heat indices to approach and exceed 100 degrees at times this weekend.
I'll follow the action this afternoon but expect convection to really get going after 3pm.
MS
Wednesday, August 20, 2014
Follow the Storms Here
Real time lightning tracker...works very well, helps me determine whether storms are firing up, increasing in intensity, or weakening. Cloud to ground strikes.
http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en
Watch satellite trends using infrared loops...warming clouds mean weakening convection, darker colors increasing mean increasing convection.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/mw/flash-ft.html
SPC Upper Air - 700mb analysis...checks temperatures at that height...>=10 degrees means less favorable conditions for thunderstorm development, known as 'capping' (too warm at that level to generate upscale cumulus formation).
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20
1:00pm synopsis...
Satellite trends continue to show weakening of main convective cluster in Illinois. However, active convection is still ongoing within this cluster albeit quite limited by now. Now, new convection is firing up to the south of that complex.
As this whole complex encounters a juiced up air mass, expect scattered chances for precipitation along the Ohio River from Evansville to Covington through late afternoon.
Capping does appear to be a limiting factor in parts of western KY despite very high instability values. If cloud debris does not contaminate instability upstream, storms should refire with significant intensity along the Ohio River and push into central and east KY later this evening into the first part of the overnight at the very least.
Possible updates later if storms get cranky.
MS
http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en
Watch satellite trends using infrared loops...warming clouds mean weakening convection, darker colors increasing mean increasing convection.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/mw/flash-ft.html
SPC Upper Air - 700mb analysis...checks temperatures at that height...>=10 degrees means less favorable conditions for thunderstorm development, known as 'capping' (too warm at that level to generate upscale cumulus formation).
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20
1:00pm synopsis...
Satellite trends continue to show weakening of main convective cluster in Illinois. However, active convection is still ongoing within this cluster albeit quite limited by now. Now, new convection is firing up to the south of that complex.
As this whole complex encounters a juiced up air mass, expect scattered chances for precipitation along the Ohio River from Evansville to Covington through late afternoon.
Capping does appear to be a limiting factor in parts of western KY despite very high instability values. If cloud debris does not contaminate instability upstream, storms should refire with significant intensity along the Ohio River and push into central and east KY later this evening into the first part of the overnight at the very least.
Possible updates later if storms get cranky.
MS
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