UPDATE November and Annual Rainfall Totals

For Louisville, here's the latest thru 10:00 a.m.

November - 6.38" (9th wettest November all-time)
2011 Total - 61.57" (3rd wettest year all-time)
Wettest Annual record - 64.60"
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For Lexington...thru 10:00 a.m.

November - 6.65" (5th wettest November all-time)
2011 Total - 60.89" (4th wettest year all-time)
Wettest Annual record - 65.76"
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Most areas could see another inch before tapering off.

MS

California Has Just Gotten Smaller

I found this news article from November 21 on NBC. An impressive video account of a nice chunk of real estate sliding into the Pacific ocean near Los Angeles.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45383284/ns/weather/

MS

Analog Time

This storm system has been a warm breaker, is currently a big rain maker, and will become a cold shaker (on a non-weather related note, metal shakers are better than plastic shakers...). Ok, I digress...back to the weather.

I was trying to find any weather patterns from the past that match up to this storm system's characteristics. Unfortunately, not too many that stand out as this is a slow mover. Plus, it is a GFS analog that I'm using, which did not want to slow this thing down, initially.

However, November 11, 2006 will do. Wasn't a huge rainmaker, but did produce over an inch and a quarter over a couple of days. However, of interest to me, the temperatures went downhill during the next few days. From the mid 50's to low 40's for highs. Even a trace of snow was reported in Louisville during this stretch.

I do anticipate a similar set of temperatures with possible snowshowers during the next few days.

Looking further down the road, I'm still looking at December 2 and 6-7 for possibly a measurable snowfall here in Louisville.

Updates later.

MS

Another Winter Forecast for Kentucky

Here's another winter forecast for the 2011/2012 season. He really believes that this will be a snowy and cold winter.

Chris Bailey is a down-to-earth weather 'dude'. He tells it like it is and is usually right.

Click HERE for his thoughts.

In the meantime, here is a summary of what he expects...





MS

True Confessions of a Snow Addict

Hi, I'm Mike S and I'm a snow addict. They tell me that I've taken the first step, good for me. They understand what I'm going through because they've been there.

But you know what? It's so hard to present the weather in winter without some biased intent or obsessive infatuation with the 'white stuff'. I must say that I've been looking forward to getting plowed by a good ole fashioned snow storm for the past few years.

The last good one I enjoyed was in March 2008, when a surprising 14" collected on my patio tables and chairs here in Valley Station. My little girl was only 6 weeks old; therefore, she doesn't have a clue what a real snow storm is since she slept the entire time I had her in my snow castle.

I do ask for your complete understanding when I start ranting about the 'big one'. I hope to be talking quite a bit about big snows this upcoming winter, but I'll try and tone it down a little at times.

Briefly, it does appear that Louisville could see its first real flakes of the season in a few days. However, I'm looking further down the road at December 2 and 6. We could see our first measurable snowfall during one or both of those time periods. Of course, these dates are approximate but does lend weight to the thought that December will indeed start out nice and wintry.

The models I've been looking at paint below to well below readings for the next 10 days at least, starting this Sunday. In the meantime, enjoy Friday and Saturday if you like pleasant weather. After that, winter's fixins will be on the top of my menu and I can't wait to get a taste of it.

Hey, what can I say? I'm a snow addict and proud of it.

MS

Nova Scotia Dealing With 1st Major Winter Storm of Season

The first major snow event in Nova Scotia is causing lots of headaches for drivers, including emergency personnel and salt crews. There are numerous accidents, mostly with minor injuries, but hampering efforts to help clear roadways and getting through to other accident victims.

I'm even hearing reports of a vehicle vs. school bus. Apparently, most students had the day off or were closed for the day due to weather. However, some schools that were open for the day have decided to dismiss early. Hmm, I suppose school districts in Kentucky are not the only ones who make apparent lapses in judgement when it comes to wintry weather.

Parts of Nova Scotia may get up to a foot of snow by tomorrow morning.

Listen in on some of the action HERE

Read about it here

MS

Warm Front Pushes Through Louisville...Severe Chances???

During the 11:00am hourly report, the temperature at Louisville International has jumped from the 10:00am observation of 56 to a current reading of 64 degrees. Expect winds to increase steadily throughout the early afternoon hours. Already reports of 35mph gusts at Bowling Green.

Still, quite a few clouds. How will this interfere with severe chances for the region? Currently, low pressure in southern Illinois is racing northeast.

Here's the latest severe outlook from the SPC...


Impressive Storm Relative Helicity values approaching Bowling Green. Based on these values, best chances for severe weather still look to reside south of E'town to Bowling Green and points south from there. Also, east of these locations could see helicity values increasing this afternoon.

Dewpoints in the upper 50's to mid 60's also being reported in parts of west and central Kentucky, supportive of a possible severe setup.

Shear of 40-50kts could possibly aid in a damaging wind potential for parts of the state. I still would not exclude Louisville from the possibility of 45mph winds with an expected squall line that appears to be trying to develop just west of Paducah.

Instability is not impressive; however, the helicity values are still a concern. Could a WATCH be issued? I would say best chances would be south near Bowling Green east to Somerset. E'town east to Richmond. Right now, things just don't look promising, YET. Will be looking for catalysts over the next couple of hours.

MS