Sunday, September 4, 2011

Woodford County KY Power Outage Update

Strong storms rocked parts of the Bluegrass early this evening knocking out power to several residents, especially around the Versailles area.

As of 8:15pm edt, Woodford county is reporting close to 2,200 outages according to KU/ODP.
In Harlan county, less than 50 outages now being reported and Fayette county has a little less than 350.

In Versailles, numerous trees down and high water even closed roads for a time.

MS

Lee's Rain UPDATES Louisiana, Alabama

Updated at 11:30am edt...
HOLDON              13.93
N.O. CAROLLTON      12.97
MAUREPAS            11.97
CONVENT 2S          11.55
GALLIANO            11.40
LIVINGSTON          11.24
N.O. AUDUBON        10.79
SLIDELL CITY        10.62
PASCAGOULA          10.60
COVINGTON           10.46
TERRYTOWN 3S         9.86
PONCHATOULA 4SE      9.42
BAPTIST              9.31
MS

Watching the Rain Here...

Keep up with the latest daily totals
Enlarge map by clicking on it...


I've provided a few webcam shots below....
 Lexington

Pikeville, Kentucky - Eastern Kentucky Expo Center 1 Webcam
Pikeville

Ashland
 
Huntington WV
 
Projected rainfall amounts for the area...for 8am Sun - 8pm Tue

MS
 

Model ALERT

We as weather enthusiasts should never take an individual run of the models and say that's what's going to happen. However, I would like to share one of my favorite models with you and the possible setup. This is just for Tuesday morning...

Click on the map and take note of the lower right quadrant. Precip amounts are expressed in "millimeters".
10 mm = 1cm
25.4mm = 2.54cm=1 inch

Some locations in eastern KY are expecting at least 3" during this time. Total amounts may exceed 5-6" in some locations for the upcoming week.

This model and its trend has shifted a little farther west than previous runs. Perhaps either the front is moving slower or Lee is moving faster. However, consistently, eastern KY has been in the bullseye of the heaviest rainfall.

More updates later...
MS


What's That Falling From the Sky???

For many of us, rain has become a foreign word in our weather vocabulary...
It's been so long, I had to look up the meaning.

According to the NWS, rain is defined as "Precipitation that falls to earth in drops more than 0.5 mm in diameter."

So for you who haven't seen this phenomena in a while, you won't need to be overly concerned and clog the 911 emergency lines as this rain begins to fall.

Seriously, the rain, while welcome, may seem to over-extend its stay in some locations, compliments of Lee and a lazily moving but potent cold front.

Depending on where the moisture pools, some areas, especially in parts of eastern KY will receive at least 2-4". I expect higher amounts in far eastern KY with all of the orographic lifting. I wouldn't be surprised by some 6" amounts, which may lead to some possible flooding concerns.

The models that I look at are not in agreement about precip amounts. However, they do agree that the bulk of the precip will be further east than Friday and Saturday's forecast. That trend may continue.

However, we need to wait and see how the front and Lee will mesh.

Louisville, or parts of the area, should receive at least an inch of rain, perhaps 1-2". Rainfall amounts in general should be heavier the farther east one travels.

Hopefully, although it's bad timing, everyone will get in on the rain that we desperately need. But, I do know that everyone will benefit from the cooler readings in store for nearly all of next week.

MS

Friday, September 2, 2011

abc...KLM...xyz

After another brutal day of 100-degree heat scheduled for today and tomorrow, big changes are looming. As reported here last week, I mentioned the below-normal temps expected from Labor Day onward thru the rest of next week. That looks to be the case for a certainty.

Here are a few reasonable explanations for the below-normal readings coming up...I call it the ABC's of next week's forecast.

First, look out for Hurricane Katia. It looks to make a trek uncomfortably close to the U.S. East coast later in the week. As the storm system approaches, counterclockwise flow around the tropical low will keep our temps in a east to northeast flow, which does not translate to above-normal readings.

It is still too early to tell whether Katia will spread any precipitation onshore or over the Appalachians toward eastern KY, however the possibility does exist. But, an increasing threat will be whether Katia affects the northeast with any more rain.

This leads us to the next letter of our alphabet, Lee, yes, tropical storm Lee. It is expected to be a slow mover as it traverses the southern landscape. Some expected precip amounts are in a drought-busting range of 10-16" for areas like Louisiana and Mississippi.

Lee's affects could be the Major(s) (get it Lee Majors....uh...right) in terms of rain producers and may be felt within the region as well. Depending on how much dry air is sucked into the system from the behemoth high pressure ridge standing put over Texas, heavy rains could impact the region by the end of the weekend. The forecast models are showing copious amounts along and east of I-65, perhaps up to 6" in places. Again, this will be watched closely, as atmospheric dynamics could alter Lee's moisture supply. This will also keep our temperatures down with all the cloud cover and possible rain and an associated cold front poised to push through as well.

Unfortunately, Lee's effects may be felt along the northeast coast later in the week. This is not a good scenario as either Katia and/or Lee could affect those residents with more rain.

Last, the Models are showing a consensus for below-normal readings. Most forecast models show temps generally in the mid-70's to the low 80's. However, some days may struggle to reach the mid-70's if we get the generous rains here in Louisville. Most likely, areas in eastern KY will receive the brunt of the rain and cloud cover along with temps not able to get above 70.

And that's your ABC's for next week. Stay tuned...

And, by the way, speaking of ABC, remember Lee Majors' role as Steve Austin in the Six Million Dollar Man away back in the 1970's? Couldn't help but think of him as tropical storm Lee approaches the Gulf coast.  
The Six Million Dollar Man TV Intro
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HofoK_QQxGc&feature=BFp&list=FLK4tSnlcI7PCF6f1uNEFiEA

MS

Thursday, September 1, 2011

First 100-Degree Day of the Summer???

3pm UPDATE
IT'S OFFICIAL! 100 degrees at the Louisville Int'l airport. First time this summer.
--------------------------
We're already at 98 degrees and it's only 2pm. With a dry ground and nearly cloudless sky, it looks almost certain that Louisville will finally break the 100-degree mark for the first time all summer. Meterologically, we start Autumn today; nevertheless, 100 degrees could be the high temperature today (or maybe higher).
Record for today is 103.

MS

Tornadoes on Easter Sunday

This is a worse case scenario. Tornadoes and flooded, blocked roadways making for great difficulties reaching residences affecting hard hit ...