A welcome cold front (actually 2 fronts) resides in central and northern Indiana. Along the first front, a broad band of weakening showers is sagging south while main energy shunts east.
Infrared satellite showed warming cloud tops as the line approaches our area. Convective temperatures are near 85-86 degrees (and that may be conservative). Yet, our temperatures may struggle to reach that. Therefore, I don't see any thunderstorms for the area with this initial band of weakening showers.
Thunderstorm chances with this initial band look better south of Louisville and to the east where main energy and better instability reside.
However, am noticing colder cloud tops trying to form south of Chicago who has cleared out nicely. Their dewpoints are running in the upper 50's as of this writing. There is a chance we could see a thin line of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon as this secondary front surges southward.
Precip amounts for Louisville should be in a range of 0.1 to 0.4 inches today. Some areas near our area could get between 0.5 to 0.75" but should be confined again to our south and east where convection is highest.
Nevertheless, looking forward to those cooler temperatures!
MS
Thursday, September 12, 2013
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